Russian and Ukrainian negotiators sat down with U.S. mediators in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday for the first time since February. Nobody expects a breakthrough. What’s new is the American pitch: settle the security architecture first, and the map may follow.
Update, 12:30 p.m. ET: Day one ended after about four hours with no breakthrough, AP and the BBC report. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who did not attend, called the talks “very productive” but said much work remains; per Reuters (via the Guardian), he said the goal is eventually to include other European voices. Zelenskyy called the session “constructive and quite substantive.” Kushner told delegates the U.S. had “narrowed the gaps,” without details. Moscow did not comment on results. Talks resume Wednesday morning.
Why it matters
The U.S. is now openly offering to talk with Moscow about how Europe’s security is organized — the conversation the Kremlin demanded in its December 2021 ultimatum, weeks before the invasion.
Big picture
- Who’s there: Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner for the U.S.; Foreign Intelligence Service chief Rustem Umerov leads Ukraine’s team with presidential chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov, Serhii Kyslytsia, Davyd Arakhamia and Vadym Skibitskyi; Vladimir Medinsky leads Russia’s with Sergei Ryabkov, Mikhail Galuzin, Igor Kostyukov and Yury Zhigarlovsky.
- Timing: Day one wrapped by early afternoon local time, per The Guardian. Day two is Wednesday.
- Kremlin: Dmitry Peskov declined to forecast results “while the talks are still ongoing.”
Between the lines
- A U.S. official told reporters that, privately, both sides have shown “a little bit of flexibility” on who controls eastern Ukraine — but “they will not solve the Donetsk issue and the territorial issue until they know what the security architecture is going to be after the war,” per the BBC.
- Officials told The Guardian that guarantees discussed with Russia for Ukraine would be “effectively very similar to NATO.” Whether to extend a U.S. guarantee is up to Trump and Zelenskyy.
- The U.S. also floated reviving the NATO-Russia Council and, per The Guardian, potentially lifting sanctions to get a deal. Kushner described “stronger consultation, reliable crisis communications, greater military transparency, and reciprocal measures to reduce escalation risks.”
The other side
Europeans, Ukrainians and Americans agreed in a joint statement that any arrangement must respect “sovereignty, territorial integrity” and give Ukraine “credible security guarantees.” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas told Reuters Russia has “just been pretending that they negotiate.”
Trump, at the White House on Monday: “I just believe that Ukraine and Russia are tired of fighting.” He cited about 25,000 deaths a month — a figure he gave without a source.
What’s next
Arakhamia told DW he doesn’t expect a breakthrough in round one: “Simply resuming the talks is already an achievement.” Budanov says expanding prisoner exchanges is on the agenda.
Our view
“Very similar to NATO” is doing a lot of work. “Similar” is the most expensive word in any treaty — and if the price is Ukraine leaving the rest of Donetsk, Kyiv would be trading real fortifications for a promise. An honest win in Abu Dhabi looks like a prisoner swap and a date for round two.
FAQ
How long do the talks last? Two days, Nov. 10–11.
Is there a ceasefire? No agreements were reported after day one.
What are “NATO-like” guarantees? A commitment modeled on NATO’s Article 5, without membership. No details yet.
Read also
- Abu Dhabi talks: Europe shows up uninvited
- Trump, Xi and Putin in Shenzhen?
- Yalta 2.0: Europe rejects a deal over its head
Sergey Danilov
Leave a Reply