Tehran is celebrating like it won the midterms. The timing was almost theatrical: Nov. 4 is the anniversary of the 1979 US Embassy seizure, and anti-US rallies landed on the same morning as the “blue wave” headlines.
Why it matters: The next two months — Trump has lost Congress but isn’t yet constrained by it — may be the riskiest stretch of the war.
Driving the news
- The gloat: “Conscience or the cost of living, Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message,” parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf posted on X — adding that if Washington “betrays” its public, “our NO comes with a Nightmare” (Politico).
- Iran’s judiciary chief said Trump lost “both in war and in politics” (AP).
- The warning: Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said US hostility won’t change through party shifts or concessions; those who think otherwise are “greatly mistaken.” Any renewed US aggression would draw a response “on a much greater scale” (Reuters). “The US sees the end of its hegemony as distant; we see it as near.”
Between the lines
- Politico reports Iranian negotiators may have stalled recent talks to keep US gas prices high and stoke voter frustration. If true, Tehran played the midterms through the pump.
- Voters did punish the war: 63% said military action against Iran was the wrong decision; 87% are concerned about gas and diesel prices (NBC News Exit Poll).
- CBS News says the unpopular Iran war and high fuel prices put once-safe GOP states in play.
What’s next: can Congress stop the war?
- Hakeem Jeffries lists stopping the Iran war among four priorities (NBC).
- Tools: war powers resolutions, the Pentagon budget, hearings. House Armed Services Democrats want a full accounting of the war’s cost and impact (Politico).
- Yes, but: Trump can veto, and the new Congress doesn’t start until Jan. 3.
The big picture for immigrant families
- Gas prices: As long as Hormuz is a bargaining chip, pump prices in Florida and elsewhere will react to every statement from Tehran.
- Russia: Expensive oil keeps helping the Kremlin’s budget and its war on Ukraine.
- Diaspora: For Iranian Americans — as for Russian-speaking immigrants — it’s familiar: the regime spins any US event as its own win.
Our view
We think Tehran is making a classic mistake: confusing American anger over prices with sympathy for Iran. Voters voted against a war and expensive gas, not for the Islamic Republic. The bigger danger is the gap until January. If Tehran decides Washington is weak, and the White House decides to show strength before Congress can tie its hands, the Qatar channel could end not in a deal but in escalation.
FAQ
What did Iran say about the US midterms? Ghalibaf welcomed Americans’ “NO TO WAR”; Khamenei said US policy won’t change with the party in power.
Will the new Congress end the Iran war? Democrats call it a priority, but Congress convenes Jan. 3 and Trump can veto.
How does this affect gas prices? Prices hinge on the Strait of Hormuz and the talks; Tehran’s statements move oil quickly.
Read also
- US Strikes Iran’s Qeshm Island on the Eve of the Midterms
- 2026 Midterm Results: Democrats Take Congress. What’s Next
- Election Day Markets: Wall Street Waits, Oil Rebounds
Sources
- Reuters via Al-Monitor — Iran’s Khamenei says US hostility will persist regardless of party in power
- AP — Iranian officials celebrate US midterm elections rebuke to Trump
- Politico — Tehran gloats as Republicans take a beating
- NBC News Exit Poll — Many voters saw midterm election as a rebuke of Trump
- CBS News — Democrats win majority in the Senate
- NBC News — Democrats win control of the House of Representatives with a vow to combat Trump
By Sergey Danilov, American Panorama
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