Markets on Election Day are acting like a voter in line: standing still, fidgeting, waiting. Futures split Tuesday morning, the dollar drifted, and oil fell again — this time not because of the ballot box but because of Iran. Short answer to “what happens to stocks today”: probably not much. Tomorrow morning could be interesting.
Why it matters: The real fireworks come overnight as votes are counted — and on Friday, when the October jobs report lands.
The big picture
- As of 9 a.m. ET, per CNBC: S&P 500 futures +0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures +0.8% on a chip rally, Dow futures −0.2%, dragged down by Apple.
- Oil, which fell 7.6% Monday on news of Iran talks, briefly bounced overnight after “defensive” US strikes on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz — then slid again. Brent was near $101.50 at 9 a.m. ET.
- The VIX “fear gauge” rose to 21.15; options price an S&P 500 move of about 0.9% today and about 1.9% through Friday (Saxo).
This morning
As of 9 a.m. ET, per CNBC, S&P 500 futures were up 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.8%, and Dow futures down 127 points, or 0.2%. Apple is the drag, down 4% premarket after a weak margin outlook; chipmakers are the lift, with Micron up almost 4% and AMD and Intel up more than 3%. Yahoo Finance futures quotes around 8:55 a.m. ET pointed the same way. Earlier in the morning the picture was weaker: per AP, Dow futures were then down 0.5% and S&P 500 futures were flat.
Dow Jones Newswires (via Morningstar) expects a typical election-day session: thin volume, a narrow range and rotation into defensive sectors.
Monday was jittery. Closing moves, per CNBC, Yahoo Finance and Saxo:
| Market | Monday, Nov. 2 |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 | −0.51% |
| Nasdaq Composite | −1.07% |
| Nasdaq 100 | −1.4%, more than 10% below its record — correction territory |
| Dow Jones | +0.41% (+214 points) |
| Brent crude | −7.6%, to $104.77 a barrel |
Same reason as last week: investors are asking ever more loudly when the giant AI spending will pay off. Apple’s and Palantir’s after-the-bell reports only sharpened the question (see our separate story).
Oil: down 7.6%, a bounce on Qeshm, then down again
Oil plunged Monday: Brent fell $8.66, or 7.6%, to $104.77 a barrel, and WTI fell 7.4% to $96.46 (Reuters, CNBC) — the biggest one-day drop since late July. The trigger: Iran’s leadership authorized further talks with Washington through Qatari mediation.
Overnight the story flipped — briefly. The US struck Iran’s Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz — officially “defensive,” after IRGC claims of downed US drones. Per AP, oil bounced on the strikes overnight, but by morning it was falling again on talk of progress in US–Iran negotiations. As of 9 a.m. ET, per CNBC, Brent was down almost 3%, at about $101.50 a barrel, and WTI was down about 2%, near $94.
Reuters’ Morning Bid admits it plainly: it’s unclear what wins after the election — bombs or talks.
Dollar, gold and bonds
The dollar eased slightly, per Reuters (via CNBC): euro at $1.1201, pound at $1.3421, yen at 157.8 per dollar. Safe-haven demand props it up; cheaper oil and election uncertainty weigh on it. Gold, per Saxo, is pressing resistance near $3,970 an ounce. The 10-year Treasury yield edged up to about 4.91% Tuesday morning (CNBC).
Between the lines
Saxo flags a telling detail: traders are overpaying for protection across the whole week, not for Election Day itself. In other words, the market isn’t afraid of Tuesday — it’s afraid of the chain “election → Treasury → payrolls.”
What’s next
- Tonight and overnight: vote count — control of the House and Senate.
- Wednesday: Treasury quarterly refunding.
- Friday, Nov. 6: October jobs report.
- Dec. 9: Fed decision; futures, per Saxo, still price a rate hike.
The forecast, not a fact: Kit Juckes of Societe Generale (quoted by Reuters/CNBC) warns that if post-election Washington can’t agree on anything while running a big deficit, it could slow the economy and weaken the dollar.
Our view
We think the main risk for investors today isn’t the election result — it’s the temptation to trade on it. Markets historically digest election outcomes quickly; $100 oil and a possible December Fed hike aren’t going anywhere, whoever wins Michigan or Ohio. The irony: in a single night, oil rose on strikes on Iran and fell again on talk of a deal with Iran — and both headlines came out of the same Washington. If you have a 401(k) or IRA, our advice is to watch the results tonight, not your brokerage app.
FAQ
What’s happening with markets on Election Day, Nov. 3? As of 9 a.m. ET, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were up and Dow futures were down on Apple; trading is expected to be quiet. The main reaction is expected overnight and Wednesday as votes are counted.
Why are oil prices falling? The market is betting on a diplomatic deal with Iran: Brent fell 7.6% Monday and almost 3% more by Tuesday morning. The overnight bounce on US strikes on Qeshm Island was short-lived.
How will the election affect the dollar? Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes warns that post-election gridlock plus a large deficit could slow growth and weaken the dollar. That’s a forecast, not a fact.
Read also
- Apple and Palantir Stocks Fall After Earnings: Why the Market Is Punishing Good Results
- US Strikes Iran’s Qeshm Island on the Eve of the Midterms: What We Know
- US Inflation Goes to the Polls: What Got More Expensive and Who’s Paying
Sources
- CNBC — Stock market today: live updates (Nov. 3, 2026, 9 a.m. ET)
- CNBC — Oil prices fall as Iran, US pursue diplomacy (Nov. 2, 2026)
- Yahoo Finance — E-mini S&P 500 futures quote (Nov. 3, 2026)
- AP — US futures mixed ahead of midterm elections (Nov. 3, 2026)
- Dow Jones via Morningstar — Stock Futures Mixed As Americans Head to the Polls (Nov. 3, 2026)
- Reuters (via Investing.com) — Morning Bid: Midterms and mediation (Nov. 3, 2026)
- CNBC/Reuters — Dollar drifts on Mideast, midterm risks (Nov. 3, 2026)
- Saxo — Market Quick Take (Nov. 3, 2026)
By Sergey Danilov, American Panorama. This is not investment advice.
Leave a Reply