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Обновлено: 13:09 ET · Источник: AP (сверка: NBC News)Updated: 13:09 ET · Source: AP (checked vs NBC News)
Прогноз до подсчётаопросы и рынки — это не результаты · первые участки закрываются в 18:00 ETPre-count outlookpolls and markets, not results · first polls close at 6 p.m. ET
Палата представителейHouse218 — большинство218 for majority
0DR0
Объявлено 0/435Called 0/435Подробнее ▾Details ▾
СенатSenate51 — контроль51 for control
34DR31
Объявлено 0/35Called 0/35Подробнее ▾Details ▾
ГубернаторыGovernors36 гонок36 races
0DR0
Объявлено 0/36Called 0/36Подробнее ▾Details ▾

Сенат: опросы — D впереди в 9 из 11 ключевых гонок (R — 1, ничья — 1). Рынки: контроль у D — 73% Kalshi · 74,5% Polymarket (13:09 ET).Senate: polls — D ahead in 9 of 11 key races (R 1, toss-up 1). Markets: D control — 73% Kalshi · 74.5% Polymarket (13:09 ET).

Палата: подсчёт ещё не начался. Рынки: большинство у D — 93% Kalshi · 94,5% Polymarket (13:09 ET).House: count not started yet. Markets: D majority — 93% Kalshi · 94.5% Polymarket (13:09 ET).

Губернаторы: опросы — D впереди в 5 из 9 ключевых гонок (R — 2, ничья — 2).Governors: polls — D ahead in 5 of 9 key races (R 2, toss-up 2).

Ключевые гонки · СенатKey races · Senateлистайте →swipe →

  • МичиганMichiganMID+11Эль-СайедEl-Sayedопрос 53–42 · Sienapoll 53–42 · Siena
  • ТехасTexasTXD+7ТаларикоTalaricoопрос 50–43 · Sienapoll 50–43 · Siena
  • МэнMaineMED+6ДжексонJacksonопрос 51–45 · Sienapoll 51–45 · Siena
  • ОгайоOhioOHD+5БраунBrownопрос 49–44 · Sienapoll 49–44 · Siena
  • КанзасKansasKSD+5ГамильтонHamiltonопрос 49–44 · Sienapoll 49–44 · Siena
  • АляскаAlaskaAKD+2ПелтолаPeltolaопрос 48–46 · Sienapoll 48–46 · Siena
  • АйоваIowaIA≈ничьяtoss-upопрос 48–47 · Sienapoll 48–47 · Siena
  • Сев. КаролинаN. CarolinaNCD+11.4КуперCooperопрос 54–43 · 270toWinpoll 54–43 · 270toWin
  • ДжорджияGeorgiaGAD+9.6ОссоффOssoffопрос 54–44 · 270toWinpoll 54–44 · 270toWin
  • Нью-ГэмпширNew HampshireNHD+8.2ПаппасPappasопрос 51–43 · 270toWinpoll 51–43 · 270toWin
  • ФлоридаFloridaFLR+6.3МудиMoodyопрос 44–51 · 270toWinpoll 44–51 · 270toWin

Ключевые гонки · ГубернаторыKey races · Governorsлистайте →swipe →

  • ФлоридаFloridaFLR+4.6ДоналдсDonaldsопрос 45–50 · 270toWinpoll 45–50 · 270toWin
  • ДжорджияGeorgiaGA≈ничьяtoss-upопрос 49–49 · 270toWinpoll 49–49 · 270toWin
  • АризонаArizonaAZD+8.8ХоббсHobbsопрос 50–41 · 270toWinpoll 50–41 · 270toWin
  • МичиганMichiganMID+8.9БенсонBensonопрос 52–43 · 270toWinpoll 52–43 · 270toWin
  • НевадаNevadaNV—нет среднегоno averageждём подсчётawaiting count
  • ВисконсинWisconsinWID+5.5КроулиCrowleyопрос 50–44 · 270toWinpoll 50–44 · 270toWin
  • ОгайоOhioOHD+3.8ЭктонActonопрос 50–46 · 270toWinpoll 50–46 · 270toWin
  • АйоваIowaIAD+8СэндSandопрос 52–44 · 270toWinpoll 52–44 · 270toWin
  • КанзасKansasKS≈ничьяtoss-upопрос 48–48 · 270toWinpoll 48–48 · 270toWin
  • ТехасTexasTXR+2.1ЭбботтAbbottопрос 47–50 · 270toWinpoll 47–50 · 270toWin
По штатам: ключевые гонкиBy state: key racesподсчёт ещё не начат · время закрытия участковcount not started · poll closing times
ШтатStateГонкаRaceКандидаты D / RCandidates D / RЛидируетLeadingОтрыв, п.п.Margin, ptsПодсчитаноCountedСтатусStatus
ДжорджияGeorgia · СенатSenateСенатSenateОссофф (D) / Коллинз (R)Ossoff (D) / Collins (R)⏱ участки закрываются в 19:00 ET⏱ polls close 7 p.m. ETподсчёт не начатcount not started
ДжорджияGeorgia · ГубернаторGovernorГубернаторGovernorБоттомс (D) / Джексон (R)Bottoms (D) / Jackson (R)⏱ участки закрываются в 19:00 ET⏱ polls close 7 p.m. ETподсчёт не начатcount not started
Сев. КаролинаN. Carolina · СенатSenateСенатSenateКупер (D) / Уотли (R)Cooper (D) / Whatley (R)⏱ участки закрываются в 19:30 ET⏱ polls close 7:30 p.m. ETподсчёт не начатcount not started
ОгайоOhio · Сенат (досрочн.)Senate (special)Сенат (досрочн.)Senate (special)Браун (D) / Хастед (R)Brown (D) / Husted (R)⏱ участки закрываются в 19:30 ET⏱ polls close 7:30 p.m. ETподсчёт не начатcount not started
ОгайоOhio · ГубернаторGovernorГубернаторGovernorЭктон (D) / Рамасвами (R)Acton (D) / Ramaswamy (R)⏱ участки закрываются в 19:30 ET⏱ polls close 7:30 p.m. ETподсчёт не начатcount not started
ФлоридаFlorida · Сенат (досрочн.)Senate (special)Сенат (досрочн.)Senate (special)Никсон (D) / Муди (R)Nixon (D) / Moody (R)⏱ участки закрываются в 19:00–20:00 ET⏱ polls close 7–8 p.m. ETподсчёт не начатcount not started
МэнMaine · СенатSenateСенатSenateДжексон (D) / Коллинз (R)Jackson (D) / Collins (R)⏱ участки закрываются в 20:00 ET⏱ polls close 8 p.m. ETподсчёт не начатcount not started
Нью-ГэмпширNew Hampshire · СенатSenateСенатSenateПаппас (D) / Сунуну (R)Pappas (D) / Sununu (R)⏱ участки закрываются в 19:00–20:00 ET⏱ polls close 7–8 p.m. ETподсчёт не начатcount not started
ФлоридаFlorida · ГубернаторGovernorГубернаторGovernorДжолли (D) / Доналдс (R)Jolly (D) / Donalds (R)⏱ участки закрываются в 19:00–20:00 ET⏱ polls close 7–8 p.m. ETподсчёт не начатcount not started
ФлоридаFlorida · Поправка 3Amendment 3Поправка 3 налог на жильё · нужно 60% «за»Amendment 3 homestead tax · needs 60% yesДа / НетYes / No⏱ участки закрываются в 19:00–20:00 ET⏱ polls close 7–8 p.m. ETподсчёт не начатcount not started
АйоваIowa · СенатSenateСенатSenateТурек (D) / Хинсон (R)Turek (D) / Hinson (R)⏱ участки закрываются в 21:00 ET⏱ polls close 9 p.m. ETподсчёт не начатcount not started
КанзасKansas · СенатSenateСенатSenateГамильтон (D) / Маршалл (R)Hamilton (D) / Marshall (R)⏱ участки закрываются в 20:00–21:00 ET⏱ polls close 8–9 p.m. ETподсчёт не начатcount not started
МичиганMichigan · СенатSenateСенатSenateЭль-Сайед (D) / Роджерс (R)El-Sayed (D) / Rogers (R)⏱ участки закрываются в 20:00–21:00 ET⏱ polls close 8–9 p.m. ETподсчёт не начатcount not started
ТехасTexas · СенатSenateСенатSenateТаларико (D) / Пэкстон (R)Talarico (D) / Paxton (R)⏱ участки закрываются в 20:00–21:00 ET⏱ polls close 8–9 p.m. ETподсчёт не начатcount not started
АризонаArizona · ГубернаторGovernorГубернаторGovernorХоббс (D) / Биггс (R)Hobbs (D) / Biggs (R)⏱ участки закрываются в 21:00 ET⏱ polls close 9 p.m. ETподсчёт не начатcount not started
АйоваIowa · ГубернаторGovernorГубернаторGovernorСэнд (D) / Лан (R)Sand (D) / Lahn (R)⏱ участки закрываются в 21:00 ET⏱ polls close 9 p.m. ETподсчёт не начатcount not started
КанзасKansas · ГубернаторGovernorГубернаторGovernorХолшер (D) / Мастерсон (R)Holscher (D) / Masterson (R)⏱ участки закрываются в 20:00–21:00 ET⏱ polls close 8–9 p.m. ETподсчёт не начатcount not started
МичиганMichigan · ГубернаторGovernorГубернаторGovernorБенсон (D) / Джеймс (R)Benson (D) / James (R)⏱ участки закрываются в 20:00–21:00 ET⏱ polls close 8–9 p.m. ETподсчёт не начатcount not started
ТехасTexas · ГубернаторGovernorГубернаторGovernorИнохоса (D) / Эбботт (R)Hinojosa (D) / Abbott (R)⏱ участки закрываются в 20:00–21:00 ET⏱ polls close 8–9 p.m. ETподсчёт не начатcount not started
ВисконсинWisconsin · ГубернаторGovernorГубернаторGovernorКроули (D) / Тиффани (R)Crowley (D) / Tiffany (R)⏱ участки закрываются в 21:00 ET⏱ polls close 9 p.m. ETподсчёт не начатcount not started
НевадаNevada · ГубернаторGovernorГубернаторGovernorФорд (D) / Ломбардо (R)Ford (D) / Lombardo (R)⏱ участки закрываются в 22:00 ET⏱ polls close 10 p.m. ETподсчёт не начатcount not started
АляскаAlaska · СенатSenateСенатSenateПелтола (D) / Салливан (R)Peltola (D) / Sullivan (R)⏱ участки закрываются в 01:00 (4 нояб.) ET⏱ polls close 1 a.m. Nov 4 ETподсчёт не начатcount not started

Только данные AP (сверка: NBC News); «—» — данных нет. «Подсчитано» — доля ожидаемых голосов по оценке AP (expected vote). Лидерство по неполному подсчёту может меняться. Время закрытия — по AP (pollClosingTime), ET; где два времени — часть участков закрывается позже (другой часовой пояс). Аляска и Мэн: ранжированное голосование, показан первый тур.AP data only (checked vs NBC News); “—” = no data yet. “Counted” = AP’s estimate of the share of expected vote. Leads in partial returns can change. Poll closing times are AP’s (pollClosingTime), ET; two times = part of the state closes later (other time zone). Alaska and Maine use ranked-choice voting: first-round figures shown.

Плитки с пунктиром — опросы, не результаты: NYT/Siena, 23 окт.–1 нояб. 2026 (5708 вер. избирателей; см. наш материал от 3 нояб.) (Сенат: MI, TX, ME, OH, KS, AK, IA); среднее опросов 270toWin на 2 нояб. 2026 (остальные). С началом подсчёта плитка переключается на данные AP: лидер, отрыв, % учтённых голосов.Dashed tiles are polls, not results: NYT/Siena, Oct 23–Nov 1, 2026 (5,708 likely voters) (Senate: MI, TX, ME, OH, KS, AK, IA); 270toWin polling average as of Nov 2, 2026 (others). Once counting starts each tile switches to AP returns: leader, margin, % of expected vote.

Houston ICE Officer Indicted for Hitting a Fleeing Man With His SUV — a First in Texas

Sergey Danilov

Здание суда в Хьюстоне — дело агента ICE, обвинённого в наезде на мигранта

A local prosecutor is trying to put a federal immigration officer on trial for what he did during an operation. ICE officer Mario Alberto Morales, 33, turned himself in on Monday, per AP. Now comes the interesting part: who actually has the right to try him.

Why it matters: If a state court can’t reach a federal officer, state law effectively ends at the door of a government SUV.

The big picture

  • A Harris County grand jury indicted Morales for aggravated assault with a deadly weapon — his SUV.
  • Prosecutors say that on Oct. 10 he deliberately struck pedestrian Miguel Parra-Hernandez, 48, who was running from agents. Parra suffered a broken leg and hip and ankle injuries.
  • Per NBC News, it’s the first indictment of an immigration agent in Texas. The charge carries 2 to 20 years.
  • ICE calls it a “political stunt by Houston sanctuary politicians”; the US attorney calls it a “political prosecution.”

What happened on Oct. 10

Per NBC News and the Texas Tribune, ICE agents were chasing a white pickup. Two men jumped out and ran across a parking lot in different directions. Morales’ SUV went after one of them — Parra-Hernandez.

District Attorney Sean Teare released the officer’s bodycam footage edited side-by-side with surveillance video. As described by NBC and the Tribune, the SUV veers sharply toward the pedestrian at impact, the vehicle jolts, and a scream of pain is heard. The officer gets out, rolls the man over; he yells “My leg!” Morales tells a colleague: “I was coming and I hit him with the car.” To a 911 dispatcher, per the recording Teare released, he said: “I tried to get around him, and he hit my car” and “he’s fine, he’s just complaining of pain.”

Infographic: timeline of the case against Houston ICE officer Mario Morales — hired in August 2025, SUV hits Miguel Parra-Hernandez on Oct. 10, Harris County grand jury indictment on Oct. 30, court appearance and reported $30,000 bond on Nov. 2, next hearing reportedly Dec. 2; the charge carries 2 to 20 years.
Infographic: American Panorama. Source: NBC News, The Texas Tribune, AP, Axios.

Between the lines: the details that make it darker

  • Two already-detained people were in the back seat, per Sheriff Ed Gonzalez — handcuffed and shackled, without seat belts. “I know of no law enforcement agency that would deem that to be acceptable,” the sheriff said.
  • ICE said it was looking for a Jose Mendoza-Cervantes with a deportation order. His daughter said her father died in 2017 (per NBC and The New York Times, as cited by the Texas Tribune).
  • Two witnesses, per Teare, have already been deported; an investigator had to fly to the Port Isabel detention center to interview them in time.

Why it’s a precedent

“An ICE badge does not give you free rein to injure, kill, or violate the constitutional rights of anyone,” Teare said. He said Morales was hired in an August 2025 hiring “surge,” and that he knows of no agency that would have hired such a candidate.

Defense attorney David A. Lindenmuth called the charge “a crime created out of thin air.” His version, per NBC: Morales was swerving to avoid an oncoming car. The lawyer notes his client served as a military police officer and paratrooper and is a pastor.

The federal position is hard-line. ICE says only federal authorities can investigate federal officers acting in the line of duty. Aaron Reitz, US attorney for the Southern District of Texas, told the Texas Tribune he wasn’t consulted, called it a “political prosecution” and sees no basis for federal charges.

What’s next

StageWhat we know
IndictmentOct. 30; aggravated assault (second-degree felony), 2–20 years
Court appearanceMonday, Nov. 2 (AP)
BondReportedly $30,000; the officer was released
Next hearingReportedly Dec. 2
DefenseNot guilty; reportedly will seek to move the case to federal court

The bond amount, the Dec. 2 hearing date and the plan to move the case to federal court are as reported by AP and local media.

Removal to federal court is the key move. Federal officers can claim immunity for acts within their duties — and then the question “was this a reasonable maneuver” would no longer be up to a local jury.

Parra himself, per the Texas Tribune, is in a rehab facility under ICE guard and, despite being the victim, still faces deportation. Per NBC, he has lived in the US for 34 years, came at 14, and has no criminal record.

Zoom out: per the Texas Tribune, at least three ICE employees have been charged under the second Trump administration — the other two in Minnesota. Teare’s office is also investigating a fatal shooting by an ICE agent in Houston in July.

Our view

We think the core question isn’t whether this particular officer is guilty — a court will decide that — but whether local justice can reach a federal officer at all. If it can’t, we get a zone where state law stops at the door of a federal SUV. For immigrants still waiting on their status, including many from Russia and Ukraine, this isn’t abstract law school material: the answer decides where you turn if you’re the one who gets hurt. And the fact that the victim may well be deported before his alleged attacker’s trial ends needs no commentary. Retelling it is enough.

FAQ

What did the Houston ICE officer do? Prosecutors say that on Oct. 10 he deliberately hit a fleeing pedestrian with his SUV. The defense says it was an evasive maneuver.

Why does ICE call the case political? ICE says only federal authorities can investigate federal officers; DA Sean Teare is a Democrat.

How could this affect ICE operations? If the indictment holds, it’s a precedent for local prosecutors. If the case moves to federal court and collapses, it signals de facto immunity.

Read also

Sources

By Sergey Danilov, American Panorama

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