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LIVEВыборы в реальном времениLive Election Results

Обновлено: 11:31 ET · Источник: AP (сверка: NBC News)Updated: 11:31 ET · Source: AP (checked vs NBC News)
Прогноз до подсчётаопросы и рынки — это не результаты · первые участки закрываются в 18:00 ETPre-count outlookpolls and markets, not results · first polls close at 6 p.m. ET
Палата представителейHouse218 — большинство218 for majority
0DR0
Объявлено 0/435Called 0/435Подробнее ▾Details ▾
СенатSenate51 — контроль51 for control
34DR31
Объявлено 0/35Called 0/35Подробнее ▾Details ▾
ГубернаторыGovernors36 гонок36 races
0DR0
Объявлено 0/36Called 0/36Подробнее ▾Details ▾

Сенат: опросы — D впереди в 9 из 11 ключевых гонок (R — 1, ничья — 1). Рынки: контроль у D — 75% Kalshi · 76,5% Polymarket (11:31 ET).Senate: polls — D ahead in 9 of 11 key races (R 1, toss-up 1). Markets: D control — 75% Kalshi · 76.5% Polymarket (11:31 ET).

Палата: подсчёт ещё не начался. Рынки: большинство у D — 93,3% Kalshi · 94,5% Polymarket (11:31 ET).House: count not started yet. Markets: D majority — 93.3% Kalshi · 94.5% Polymarket (11:31 ET).

Губернаторы: опросы — D впереди в 5 из 9 ключевых гонок (R — 2, ничья — 2).Governors: polls — D ahead in 5 of 9 key races (R 2, toss-up 2).

Ключевые гонки · СенатKey races · Senateлистайте →swipe →

  • МичиганMichiganMID+11Эль-СайедEl-Sayedопрос 53–42 · Sienapoll 53–42 · Siena
  • ТехасTexasTXD+7ТаларикоTalaricoопрос 50–43 · Sienapoll 50–43 · Siena
  • МэнMaineMED+6ДжексонJacksonопрос 51–45 · Sienapoll 51–45 · Siena
  • ОгайоOhioOHD+5БраунBrownопрос 49–44 · Sienapoll 49–44 · Siena
  • КанзасKansasKSD+5ГамильтонHamiltonопрос 49–44 · Sienapoll 49–44 · Siena
  • АляскаAlaskaAKD+2ПелтолаPeltolaопрос 48–46 · Sienapoll 48–46 · Siena
  • АйоваIowaIA≈ничьяtoss-upопрос 48–47 · Sienapoll 48–47 · Siena
  • Сев. КаролинаN. CarolinaNCD+11.4КуперCooperопрос 54–43 · 270toWinpoll 54–43 · 270toWin
  • ДжорджияGeorgiaGAD+9.6ОссоффOssoffопрос 54–44 · 270toWinpoll 54–44 · 270toWin
  • Нью-ГэмпширNew HampshireNHD+8.2ПаппасPappasопрос 51–43 · 270toWinpoll 51–43 · 270toWin
  • ФлоридаFloridaFLR+6.3МудиMoodyопрос 44–51 · 270toWinpoll 44–51 · 270toWin

Ключевые гонки · ГубернаторыKey races · Governorsлистайте →swipe →

  • ФлоридаFloridaFLR+4.6ДоналдсDonaldsопрос 45–50 · 270toWinpoll 45–50 · 270toWin
  • ДжорджияGeorgiaGA≈ничьяtoss-upопрос 49–49 · 270toWinpoll 49–49 · 270toWin
  • АризонаArizonaAZD+8.8ХоббсHobbsопрос 50–41 · 270toWinpoll 50–41 · 270toWin
  • МичиганMichiganMID+8.9БенсонBensonопрос 52–43 · 270toWinpoll 52–43 · 270toWin
  • НевадаNevadaNV—нет среднегоno averageждём подсчётawaiting count
  • ВисконсинWisconsinWID+5.5КроулиCrowleyопрос 50–44 · 270toWinpoll 50–44 · 270toWin
  • ОгайоOhioOHD+3.8ЭктонActonопрос 50–46 · 270toWinpoll 50–46 · 270toWin
  • АйоваIowaIAD+8СэндSandопрос 52–44 · 270toWinpoll 52–44 · 270toWin
  • КанзасKansasKS≈ничьяtoss-upопрос 48–48 · 270toWinpoll 48–48 · 270toWin
  • ТехасTexasTXR+2.1ЭбботтAbbottопрос 47–50 · 270toWinpoll 47–50 · 270toWin

Плитки с пунктиром — опросы, не результаты: NYT/Siena, 23 окт.–1 нояб. 2026 (5708 вер. избирателей; см. наш материал от 3 нояб.) (Сенат: MI, TX, ME, OH, KS, AK, IA); среднее опросов 270toWin на 2 нояб. 2026 (остальные). С началом подсчёта плитка переключается на данные AP: лидер, отрыв, % учтённых голосов.Dashed tiles are polls, not results: NYT/Siena, Oct 23–Nov 1, 2026 (5,708 likely voters) (Senate: MI, TX, ME, OH, KS, AK, IA); 270toWin polling average as of Nov 2, 2026 (others). Once counting starts each tile switches to AP returns: leader, margin, % of expected vote.

·

ICE at Polling Places: What Federal Law Actually Allows on Election Day

Sergey Danilov

Вход на избирательный участок — ICE на избирательных участках в день выборов

Legally, the answer is short: federal agents may not patrol polling places. But there’s a gap between “may not” and “won’t be anywhere nearby” — and that gap is where the fear lives.

Why it matters: Intimidation doesn’t require a single arrest. It only requires enough people believing one might happen.

The big picture

  • A federal ban dating to the post-Civil War era bars “troops or armed men” at polling places. Legal experts say that covers ICE.
  • Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin said ICE “isn’t there to patrol the polling places” — but left room for agents to appear over a threat or to serve a warrant.
  • Florida’s most-discussed incident — a detention near an early-voting site in Key Largo — was found by officials to be unrelated to voting. The agents were CBP, not ICE.
  • Advocates are preparing anyway: per NPR, they’re training observers, tracking agent activity and urging people to vote early.

What the law says

Per PolitiFact, federal bans on troops at the ballot box go back to after the Civil War. The law once carried an exception “to keep the peace at the polls,” but Congress struck it in 1909 — precisely out of fear any scuffle would become a pretext.

The statute refers to “any troops or armed men.” Campaign Legal Center attorney Jonathan Diaz told PolitiFact that this applies to any federal civilian law enforcement agency, ICE included.

What is allowed:

  • The Justice Department sends monitors to check compliance with federal election law. On Oct. 28, in court in an NAACP lawsuit, DOJ said (per Bloomberg Law and The Hill) that neither FBI nor ICE personnel would serve as monitors. Staff from ATF, DEA and the Bureau of Prisons will — unarmed, with no police powers and no authority to interfere with voting.
  • Local police operate under state rules.

Per Voting Rights Lab (via PolitiFact), California, Connecticut, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island and Virginia have passed laws limiting agents and troops near polling sites.

Infographic: what federal law allows at polling places — troops or armed men are banned; FBI and ICE will not serve as election monitors, per DOJ; unarmed DOJ monitors and local police are allowed; DHS says agents may appear if there is a threat or to serve a warrant. About 100,000 polling places, about 20,000 ICE employees, and 7 states with laws limiting agents and troops at the polls.
Infographic: American Panorama. Source: PolitiFact; NBC News; Bloomberg Law and The Hill; Voting Rights Lab via PolitiFact.

What DHS and the White House say

The administration’s line is, in effect, “no plans, but no promises.” Mullin told NBC News that “ICE isn’t there to patrol the polling places,” adding: “If we’re serving a warrant, we will be where we need to be.” AP reported on the eve of the election that DHS dismissed concerns about ICE at the polls as “fearmongering.”

At the same time, Trump and Mullin claim, without evidence, that more than 250,000 noncitizens are on voter rolls.

Between the lines: where the fear comes from

PolitiFact lists the triggers:

  • Steve Bannon in February: “You’re damn right we are going to have ICE surround the polls come November.”
  • White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt saying she “can’t guarantee that an ICE agent won’t be around a polling location.”
  • Real primary-season incidents: agents in a polling-site parking lot in Simi Valley, California; a visit to a poll worker in Syracuse, New York; agents in a parking lot in Bexar County, Texas, whom the sheriff asked to leave.

Note: the UC San Diego poll and the Bannon/Leavitt quotes are cited via PolitiFact.

The math ain’t mathing

PolitiFact’s arithmetic: nearly 100,000 polling places nationwide, about 20,000 people in all of ICE. One officer per site would cover only about a quarter of locations — and the agency would do nothing else. Former Maricopa County official Stephen Richer put it best: “the math ain’t mathing.” Plus, per PolitiFact, only about 37% of 2024 voters cast ballots on Election Day itself.

Yes, but: intimidation isn’t about math. A UC San Diego survey found 40% of respondents thought immigration agents showing up at polls in their area was very or somewhat likely.

Florida: the Key Largo episode

On Oct. 20, per WLRN and the Keys Citizen, agents detained a man near the early-voting site at the Murray Nelson Government Center in Key Largo. It wasn’t ICE but Customs and Border Protection, which said it was pursuing a specific person in a targeted operation. The Monroe County supervisor of elections reviewed it and concluded the stop happened outside the 150-foot zone, access to the site wasn’t blocked, and the incident wasn’t related to voting. In another Florida case, per Scripps News, Border Patrol agents seen at a polling site turned out to have come to vote.

The boring but useful lesson: not every vest near a polling place is an operation against voters. And not every viral video means what its caption says.

If you see agents at your polling place

  • If you’re a registered citizen, vote. Your right doesn’t depend on who’s standing in the parking lot.
  • Verify before you share. PolitiFact warns AI-generated videos of “agents” at polls are already circulating. Check your county elections office website.
  • Tell poll workers or your county elections office. Broward County Supervisor of Elections Joe Scott told PolitiFact: “All of our voters are U.S. citizens — there is no reason for ICE to be there.”
  • Don’t pass on “a friend of a friend said” rumors. Panic works better than any agent.

Our view

We think the real pressure tool here isn’t the agents themselves but uncertainty. “No plans, but if there’s a warrant, we’ll be there” is legally correct. To a family where the son is a voting citizen and the mother has no status, it sounds like a warning. Readers from Russia know this mechanism too well: fear works better than an outright ban, because you can’t challenge fear in court. In the US, fortunately, you can challenge the rest — which is exactly why knowing your rights beats trading TikTok clips.

What’s next

  • Polls close tonight; watch for credible, sourced reports — not anonymous clips.
  • DOJ monitors (ATF, DEA, Bureau of Prisons staff) are working today without police powers.

FAQ

Can ICE come to a polling place? Federal law bars armed agents at polling places. DHS says agents would appear only in case of a threat or to serve a warrant.

Why are people afraid of ICE on Election Day? Statements by Steve Bannon, noncommittal answers from the administration, and incidents with agents near polling sites during the primaries.

What should I do if ICE agents are outside my polling place? Vote if you’re eligible, and report it to poll workers or your county elections office.

Read also

Sources

By Sergey Danilov, American Panorama

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